Swine Flu: Probable vs. Possible vs. Confirmed vs. WHAT?!

We’ve done a lot of coverage over the last few weeks about the H1N1 flu virus…formerly known as Swine Flu.  How Prince-like…

Let me start off by saying I’m sick of Swine Flu.  I think it needs to be added to the list with Brett Favre — stories I’m sick of that we should retire.  But I’ll rant about that another time.

Every day — right around 4pm – the Wisconsin Department of Health Services gives us an update on where we stand for cases in the state.  As of 6pm on Monday night, we have 414 confirmed cases, 35 probable cases, and an unknown number of possible cases.  Usually the “possible” cases come from the city/county level.  All of this terminology led to a great question from Mary in Lake Mills — she asked:

The reports in the media keep referring to cases of the swine flu as “probable” cases, when in reality only a small portion of them “probably” are the real swine flu.  Why then, do they not say , they are “possible” cases of the swine flu?   To me probably means; likely to become or in all likelihood, which in most cases is not happening.  If they would just say they are possible cases, it means they may possibly turn into a case of the swine flu.  This way it does not sound as imminent… does it?  What do you think?
I’m not going to lie — the terminology is very confusing.  But here’s how it’s explained to us, from our friends at the state:
  • A possible case a person who has the symptoms of H1N1 — and a doctor has sent samples to a lab for testing
  • A probable case indicates that the initial tests have come back positive.  But they need to make sure with more more final test.  The state says it’s very rare that a probable case comes back negative
  • A confirmed case is one that has undergone ALL the testing…and the person does indeed have H1N1 — or Swine Flu.
Here’s a fun flow-chart showing how the lab results are determined.

Hope that helps answer your question, Mary.

As always — we’re looking for your GOOD QUESTIONS!  Please get in touch:  goodquestion@channel3000.com.  You can also check out my fan page: CLICK HERE!

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